What Makes The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring feature of US politics – however the current situation appears particularly intractable because of shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity between both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path in this instance as each side – as well as the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
These are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back some control from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of federal operations connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
Conversely, experts indicate should the President carries out his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become more long-lasting.