Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
